GAME:  #959 Phillies @ #960 Marlins
DATE:    9/10/2020 – 6:40 pm EST
ODDS:   Phillies -105  / Marlins -105
O/U:       9

The Miami Marlins (19-19) host the Philadelphia Phillies (21-18) at Marlins Park dome in Miami, Florida. The Phillies previously split a  2 game series against the Boston Redsox while the Marlins took 2 of 3 games against the Atlanta Braves including Wednesday’s loss by a score of 29-9.

PHILADELPHIA PHILLIES

The Phillies have right-hander Jake Arrieta getting the start for this first game. Arrieta is 3-4 with a 5.67 ERA and a 1.47 WHIP. Arrieta has pitched in 33.1 innings and has allowed 38 hits, 21 runs, 5 home runs, 11 walks, and has 25 K’s. The Phillies have a team career batting average of .297 against the Marlins’ Alcantara with Gregorius, Haseley, Harper, and Segura hitting over .333.  

MIAMI MARLINS

The Marlins have right-hander Sandy Alacantara on the mound. Alcantara is 2-1 with a 3.78 ERA and a 1.14 WHIP. Alcantara has pitched in only 16.2 innings and has allowed 12 hits, 11 runs, 3 home runs, 7 walks, and has 17 K’s. The Marlins have a team career batting average of .297 against Arrieta in 64 at-bats. 

BATTER VS PITCHER  (dailybaseballdata.com)

TRENDS (covers.com) 

PHILLIES

• Under is 2-0-2 in Arrieta’s last 4 starts during game 1 of a series.
• Under is 2-0-2 in Arrieta’s last 4 road starts.

MARLINS

• Over is 4-0-1 in the Marlins last 5 games following a loss.
• Under is 6-0-1 in Alcantaras last 7 starts during game 1 of a series.
• Marlins are 0-5 in Alcantaras last 5 starts when their opponent allows 5 runs or more in their previous game.

HEAD TO HEAD

• Over is 4-1 in the last 5 meetings in Miami.

PHILLIES VS MARLINS PREDICTION

The Phillies offense has been on fire putting them 4th in the MLB in runs scored averaging 5.59 runs per game. Arrieta has been awful this year however his last appearance was a good one and Arrieta is too good to continue having a terrible year so his previous start could roll into this one where he allowed only 7 hits and 2 runs in 7 innings pitched. The Marlins on the other hand just got their ass handed to them with an MLB record-setting beatdown of a score 29-9. The Marlins may have lost some confidence after last night and facing a confident Arrieta combined with a Phillies explosive offense puts the Marlins in a bad spot. The Bookie is rolling with the Phillies to continue their push to the postseason with a big win over the Marlins.  The public is split but mostly leaning towards Marlins. There is early sharp money on the Marlins expecting a rebound.

The Bookie:         Phillies -105
Fade the Public:  Phillies
Sharp Action:      Marlins

1.05 Units to win 1 Unit on:  (#959)  Phillies -105