North Carolina vs Florida State NCAA College Basketball Prediction Pick, Odds, & Analysis

GAME:  #853 UNC vs #854 Florida St.
TIME:    3/12/2021 – 8:30p EST
SPREAD: Florida St. -2
TOTAL:      151.5

The #6 seed North Carolina Tar Heels (18-9, 10-6) face the #2 seed Florida State Seminoles (15-5, 11-4) in the ACC Tournament Semifinals at the Greensboro Coliseum in Greensboro, North Carolina on Friday at 9 p.m. EST.  The Florida State vs Duke game was canceled yesterday because of Covid within the Duke program. North Carolina won its second game in two days beating Notre Dame on Wednesday and Virginia Tech on Thursday. These teams met on Feb. 27th in North Carolina when the Tar Heels won by a score of 78-70. 

NORTH CAROLINA TAR HEELS

The North Carolina Tar Heels are averaging 76 points on 44% field goal shooting along with 13.9 offensive rebounds per game. The Tar Heels are allowing 69 points per game on 42% field-goal shooting while forcing 13.7 turnovers along with 8.6 steals and 4.4 blocks per game on defense.  North Carolina is led by Armando Bacot who is averaging 18.5 points, 13 rebounds, three blocks, one assist, and one steal per game.

FLORIDA STATE SEMINOLES

The Florida State Seminoles are averaging 79 points on 47% field goal shooting with eight 3-pointers on 38% three-point shooting and 10.5 offensive rebounds per game. The Seminoles are allowing 70 points per game on 40% field-goal shooting while forcing 14.4 turnovers with 6.8 steals and 2.8 blocks per game on the defensive end.  Florida State is led by M.J. Walker who is averaging 13.1 points, 2.6 rebounds, and 2.5 assists per game.

TRENDS

NORTH CAROLINA

• Tar Heels are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games vs. a team with a winning record.
• Over is 4-1 in Tar Heels last 5 games following an ATS win.
• Over is 4-1 in Tar Heels last 5 games following a straight-up win.
• Under is 4-1 in Tar Heels last 5 vs. a team with a winning straight-up record.
• Tar Heels are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games overall.

FLORIDA STATE

• Under is 4-0 in Seminoles last 4 neutral site games.
• Over is 7-1 in Seminoles last 8 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.
• Seminoles are 5-1-1 ATS in their last 7 Friday games.
• Seminoles are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.
• Over is 13-3 in Seminoles last 16 games following an ATS loss.

HEAD TO HEAD

• The favorite is 7-3-1 ATS in the last 11 meetings.

NORTH CAROLINA vs FLORIDA STATE PREDICTION PICK

The Tar Heels defeated FSU a month ago on their home court in a game that FSU should have won easily. Florida State completely dominated the first half until they went ice cold to start the 2nd half and UNC got hot and it cost them the game. The chances of that happening on the road for the Tar Heels are slim to none. North Carolina was starting to show signs of fatigue against the Virginia Tech Hokies in yesterday’s game so you know down the stretch the legs are going to be gone. The Seminoles will be fresh and coming off a bad loss to Notre Dame they will also be hungry. Florida State plays good defense, they rebound and shoot the ball well. If the Seminoles can keep UNC off the offensive glass this game should be a big win for FSU. The total will go under if Florida State gets the win as the defense and rebounding should keep the Tar Heels from putting up the number of points in recent games. The Bookie is rolling with the Florida State Seminoles to cover the spread. 

BETTING ANGLES:

The Bookie:         Florida St -2 / Under 151.5
Fade the Public:  Florida St / Under
Sharp Action:      Florida St / Under