Game: (759) New Mexico (4-1) vs. (760) New Mexico State (2-2)
Time: Thurs. 11/21 9:00 PM EST at Pan American Center
Spread: New Mexico State -3.5
Total: 149
Odds from: 5Dimes Sportsbook
The New Mexico Lobos head to their arch-rival the New Mexico State Aggies. Both teams come into this matchup ranked in the top-100, so it should be a good one to watch. These teams met twice last year and both had the same outcome with New Mexico State winning 98-94 in their first meeting and a blowout of 100-65 in their second meeting on December 4, 2018. New Mexico last faced UTEP in a tough 66-63 loss and New Mexico State got pounded and lost 83-53 to tough Arizona squad.
NEW MEXICO LOBOS
The Lobos are scoring 87 points per game on 50% field goal shooting with 36% from 3 point land. New Mexico is also causing 15 turnovers and getting 10 steals per game with their defense. New Mexico is still allowing 73 points per game as they play a fast-paced up and down the court game. The Lobos are not as much of a 3 point scoring team but more of a move the ball around to score as they average 17 assists per game as a team. They commit 17 turnovers as a team.
New Mexico comes into this game ranked No. 93 in the latest KenPom rankings after scoring 104.8 points per 100 possessions (62nd in the NCAA) through their first five games. The Lobos play at one of the fastest paces in the country which has helped them get out in transition and get to the free-throw line. New Mexico has averaged just 14.6 seconds per offensive possession (19th in the NCAA) and they sport a healthy free-throw rate of 51.5 percent (8th in the NCAA).
NEW MEXICO STATE AGGIES
The Aggies are scoring 68 points per game on 43% field goal shooting, 31% from 3. They are allowing only 64 points per game The Aggies come into this matchup slotted at No. 84 in the latest KenPom rankings after losing two of their first four games. The Aggies play at one of the slowest paces in the country, averaging 20.5 seconds per offensive possession. They are still turning the ball over 24.6% of the time on offense and keep a field goal percentage of 45.9%.
New Mexico State is currently dealing with several injuries. Guards A.J. Harris (finger) and Clayton Henry (thumb) are not expected to see any court time until December. A few other players are also nursing injuries. Starting guard Terrell Brown, who led the Aggies in scoring at 11.3 points a game a year ago, has struggled in the early going while nursing a strained groin. Brown is averaging just seven points while shooting only 24% from the field and 23.5% from the field. Redshirt sophomore Jabari Rice (10 PPG) was limited to five minutes of action against Southern.
SUMMARY
New Mexico State will try to stun New Mexico offensively by slowing things down and try to keep the score low in this one. Aggies have kept three of their four opponents to under 66 points and are giving up 64.7 points a game. The Aggies rank 18th in offensive efficiency, while the Lobos rank 193rd in defensive efficiency dating back to the 2018-19 season. Opposite tempos will be on display in this meeting. The favorite is 5-1 ATS in the last 7 matchups between the two. The Lobos are 0-4-1 ATS in their last 5 meetings against New Mexico State.
TRENDS
NEW MEXICO:
- Over is 10-4 in UNM last 14 Thu. games.
- Over is 16-7 in UNM last 23 road games.
- UNM are 19-43 ATS in their last 62 road games.
NEW MEXICO ST.:
- NMSU are 2-6 ATS in their last 8 home games.
- Over is 8-3 in NMSU last 11 Thu. games.
Data Analysis: New Mexico State -3.5 / Over 149
Fade the Public: New Mexico State -3.5 / Over 149
Sharp Action: no data / no data