8:15 p.m. ET: New England Patriots (8-4) at Buffalo Bills (7-4)

Spread: Bills -3
Total: 41

The Patriots (8-4 SU, 8-4 ATS) are on a 6-game win streak and just dominated the Titans 36-13 and the Bills (7-4 SU, 6-4-1 ATS) are 3-3 over their last 6 games, but just beat the Saints 31-6. The Patriots are 146 in point differential and the Bills are  144. Entering their first of two meetings down the stretch, the Patriots hold a half-game lead over the Bills atop the AFC East standings. The Buffalo defense took a major hit in the form of a season-ending injury to star cornerback Tre’Davious White, who suffered a torn ACL in his left knee against the Saints and was placed on injured reserve on Tuesday. Buffalo won both meetings with New England last season. New England placed a pair of players on the COVID list in the build-up to Monday’s game. Leading tackler Kyle Dugger landed on the list on Wednesday after running back J.J. Taylor was added to it on Monday. While Jones and the Patriots have had a lot of success of late, they’ve hardly faced teams with good defenses. This Buffalo team is 2nd in scoring offense and 2nd in scoring defense. The public is jumping on the hot team but the Bills are in a good spot to get the win. Take Buffalo and the Under in this one.

Matchup Trends

• The Patriots are 14-3 ATS in their last 17 meetings in Buffalo.
• The underdog is 3-1-1 ATS in their last 5 meetings.
• The Patriots are 1-3-1 ATS in their last 5 meetings.
• The road team is 22-8-2 ATS in their last 32 meetings.

The Bookie:          Bills -3 / Under 41
Fade the Public:   Bills / Under
Sharp Action:       Bills / Under