7:09 p.m. ET: Arkansas Razorbacks (27-8) vs Gonzaga Bulldogs (28-3)

Spread: Gonzaga -9.5
Total: 155.5

Arkansas is great on the defensive with a top-15 defense, per KenPom‘s adjusted efficiency. Gonzaga is full of size, speed, and talent that will be tough to stop with the nation’s leading offense. The Bulldogs are the 2nd-best team offensively in finishing at the rim and are the 7th-tallest team in the nation. Arkansas has been struggling to shoot lately which will make it difficult to keep up with the nation’s best offense, and the Razorbacks will be at a significant size disadvantage here. Arkansas is 1-6 when teams shoot 46% or better from the field against them and Gonzaga has only made fewer than 46% of its shots in 4 games. Arkansas’ biggest problem is foul trouble which Gonzaga will look to exploit. If the Razorbacks will have any chance they will have to rely on the 3 and they don’t shoot consistently well from 3 at only 31% on the season. Gonzaga had a tough test against Memphis but that is the type of game that prepared them for this Arkansas team that plays a similar style with much worse shooting. The Zags should roll for a big double-digit win here. 

7:29 p.m. ET: Michigan Wolverines (19-14) vs Villanova Wildcats (28-7)

Spread: Villanova -4.5
Total: 135.5

The #6 Villanova Wildcats and the Michigan Wolverines meet in the NCAA Tournament Sweet 16. This is the Wildcats’ 2nd straight trip to the Sweet 16 and the last time they played in San Antonio, they beat Michigan in the 2018 national championship game. Villanova has the 49th best overall three-point shooting percentage and the number one free throw shooting percentage. According to KenPom, the Wildcats have the eighth-most efficient offense and the 30th most efficient defense. Michigan will have the size advantage with Dickinson who is 7’1” compared to Villanova’s biggest starter, 6’8″ Eric Dixon. Villanova can shoot its way to a win, but the Wildcats’ lack of size and depth could be a factor. Michigan is playing well in recent games but this team has struggled offensively all season. The 3-point shot is the most unpredictable when it comes to hoops but Villanova has proven to be dominant from beyond the arc. If this game is close you can count on the Wildcats to hit their free throws and hold onto a win. The Wildcats are the much better consistent team on both ends of the floor and should be able to cover the number. 

9:39 p.m. ET: Texas Tech Red Raiders (27-9) vs Duke Blue Devils (30-6)

Spread: Texas Tech -1
Total: 137.5

Duke is in the Sweet 16 for the 28th time as a program and Krzyzewski is looking for his 100th NCAA Tournament win. Duke won the lone previous meeting with Texas Tech, 69-58 on Dec. 20, 2018, at New York’s Madison Square Garden. Texas Tech is 0-5 ATS in its past five games after a win and 2-6 ATS in its past eight overall. Texas Tech is an amazing defensive team, but you can’t trust TTU to make the key shots when they matter. Texas Tech’s strength is its defense. The Red Raiders have the efficient defense per KenPom, forcing turnovers on 23.5% of opposing possessions. While the defense is great, the offense tends to struggle against good opponents. Duke’s offense, even against a great defense, will be a tough challenge with so many scorers on the floor. The Red Raiders will have to decide who to focus on which will leave the door open for players like Wendell Moore, AJ Griffin, or Trevor Keels. Banchero will get his points and if Mark Williams stays out of foul trouble, they should dominate here. This line is begging for Texas Tech money and everyone has bought into it. Take the Dukies to roll here. 

9:59 p.m. ET: Houston Cougars (31-5) vs Arizona Wildcats (33-3)

Spread: Arizona -1.5
Total: 145

Arizona captured both the Pac-12 Conference regular-season and tournament titles in coach Tommy Lloyd’s first season as head coach after 20 years as an assistant at Gonzaga. The Cougars won both the regular season and tournament championships despite losing their two best players to season-ending injuries before conference play started. Houston has won five straight games and 11 of its past 12, advancing to the Sweet 16 for the third straight season. Arizona will have to make some adjustments in this matchup after TCU nearly won on Sunday because of its 20 offensive rebounds. Arizona will lose this game if they don’t win the rebounding battle which is why you’ll see some adjustments from Lloyd especially by going with more size on the floor. Houston dominated Illinois but the Fighting Illini were overrated all season based on Cockburn being able to carry the team but quickly found out without the guard play they couldn’t get the needed big wins. Arizona has the size, depth, scoring ability, and is much better than Illinois. Arizona did barely beat Illinois this season but that was at Illinois in a game that they shot lights out from the perimeter. This Houston team is relentless on both ends of the floor but won’t be able to match the overall talent level of Arizona. Look for Arizona to get the job done in this one.