6:09 p.m. ET: Villanova Wildcats (30-7) vs Kansas Jayhawks (32-6)
Spread: Kansas -4.5
Total: 133
Villanova is coming off a 50-44 win over Houston after beating Michigan 63-55, Ohio State 71-61, and Delaware 80-60. Kansas just pounded Miami 76-50 after beating Providence 66-61, Creighton 79-72, and Texas Southern 83-56. This line opened with Kansas listed as a 3.5-point favorite. Sharp money is jumping on the Jayhawks driving Kansas up from -3.5 to -4.5. The main reason for the jump is news that Villanova starting guard Justin Moore will miss the game with a season-ending achilles injury. Ken Pom has Kansas winning by just one point (70-69), but that doesn’t factor in the Moore injury.
We have just about everyone picking Kansas to win here since the Wildcats will be without Justin Moore but Villanova has won 9 straight and covered all 4 NCAA Tournament games. Villanova is the #1 free-throw shooting team which is important in this big game and the Wildcats won’t turn the ball over averaging less than 10 per game in the tournament. Kansas has been struggling at the line in previous games and they have come out sluggish in the first half of their last 2 wins. Villanova will grind out every possession and play solid defense to try to keep Kansas from getting in transition. The key for Villanova will be protecting the rim and rebounding, the need to prevent offensive rebounds and second-chance putbacks will be something the Wildcats focus on. Jay Wright’s team executes every night and on every possession. This will be a game that comes down to the last possessions unless either team is shooting lights out. This Kansas team has struggled against good defensive teams and the loss of Moore is creating line value on the dog so grab the +4.5 points. At the rate the first half Unders have been coming in, this is a good spot for another one. Look for under 61.5 in the 1st half.
8:49 p.m. ET: North Carolina Tar Heels (28-9) vs Duke Blue Devils (32-6)
Spread: Duke -4
Total: 151
We get to see another rematch of Duke/UNC. North Carolina is coming off a 69-49 pounding of Saint Peter’s after taking down UCLA 73-66, Baylor 93-86 and Marquette 95-63. Duke just beat Arkansas 78-69 after beating Texas Tech 78-73, Michigan State 85-76, and Cal State Fullerton 78-61. This line opened with Duke listed as a 4-point favorite. Sharps jumped on Duke early, moving the line up from -4 to -4.5 at some books. Ken Pom has Duke winning 79-75.
North Carolina covered all 4 tournament games while Duke was 3-1 ATS. These teams split during the regular season, winning on each other’s home court. The Blue Devils won in Chapel Hill by 20 points. UNC’s Manek shot 6-of-10 from 3-point range, but the rest of the Tar Heels were shut down. In the last meeting, Duke led through the first 30 minutes of the game but fell apart in the final 10 minutes and outscored Duke, 35-20. Armando Bacot has been unstoppable in the Big Dance, Duke has the size to help control him. The Blue Devils have also seen Roach step up his game in the tournament while Banchero has been playing well we have yet to see his best game of the tournament. UNC has had tough opponents in Baylor and UCLA but the Bears have struggled the second half of the season and UCLA has had offensive issues all year. UNC has been playing well but Duke has been playing smart, grinding out wins in the final minutes. Things are just setting up too perfectly for Coach K to win another championship this year so you have to roll with the Dukies here.