Duke vs Florida State – NCAA College Basketball Prediction Pick

GAME:  #683 Duke vs #684 Florida State
TIME:    3/11/2021 -6:30p EST
SPREAD: Florida St. -3
TOTAL:      153.5

The #10 seed Duke Blue Devils (13-11, 11-9) face the #2 seed Florida State Seminoles (15-5, 11-4) in the ACC Tournament Quarterfinals at the Greensboro Coliseum in Greensboro, North Carolina on Thursday at 6:30 p.m. EST. Duke knocked off Louisville by 14 on Wednesday and Florida State lost its last game at Notre Dame on Saturday by a score of 83-73. These teams met once last season when Duke won by a score of 70-65. 

DUKE BLUE DEVILS

The Duke Blue Devils are averaging 76 points on 46% field goal shooting with eight 3-pointers on 35% three-point shooting and 9.8 offensive rebounds per game. Duke is allowing 71 points per game on 45% field goal shooting while forcing 13.8 turnovers with 6.3 steals and 3.9 blocks per game on the defensive end. The Blue Devils are led by Matthew hurt who is averaging 18 points, 6.1 rebounds, and 1.4 assists per game.

FLORIDA STATE SEMINOLES

The Florida State Seminoles are averaging 79 points on 47% field goal shooting with eight 3-pointers on 38% three-point shooting and 10.5 offensive rebounds per game. The Seminoles are allowing 70 points per game on 40% field-goal shooting while forcing 14.4 turnovers with 6.8 steals and 2.8 blocks per game on the defensive end.  Florida State is led by M.J. Walker who is averaging 13.1 points, 2.6 rebounds, and 2.5 assists per game.

TRENDS

DUKE

• Blue Devils are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 neutral site games as an underdog.
• The Blue Devils are 5-0-1 ATS in their last 6 Thursday games.
• Over is 6-1 in Blue Devils last 7 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.
• Over is 5-1 in Blue Devils last 6 games following an ATS win.
• Over is 5-1 in Blue Devils last 6 games following a straight-up win.

FLORIDA STATE

• Under is 4-0 in Seminoles last 4 neutral site games.
• Over is 13-3 in Seminoles last 16 games following an ATS loss.
• Under is 4-1 in Seminoles last 5 Thursday games.
• Under is 20-7-1 in Seminoles last 28 vs. a team with a winning straight-up record.
• Seminoles are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games following an ATS loss.

HEAD TO HEAD

• Underdog is 4-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings.

DUKE vs FLORIDA STATE PREDICTION PICK

The Blue Devils will be playing their 3rd game in three days. Duke has had fairly easy competition compared to the Seminoles squad they will be facing today. Florida State is also coming off a bad loss to Notre Dame in which they shot the lights out and it cost them the conference win so they will be hungry to get back on the court. Florida State is a team that plays tough defense and they can score. Duke can score but typically against teams that do not play very good defense unless they are shooting lights out. The tough Florida State defense has held opposing offenses to a field goal percentage of 40% which is the 20th-lowest mark in Division I. Duke has allowed opponents to shoot 45.6% through 24 games (ranking the Blue Devils 272nd).

Duke had a nice run but this is where it ends. Florida State should be able to shut down Duke’s offense, dominate the boards, and outscore the Blue Devils. This line will probably increase as the day goes on, especially closer to tip. The Under is the best bet if the Duke offense is shut down and The Bookie is taking the Florida State Seminoles to get this job done with ease. 

BETTING ANGLES:

The Bookie:         Florida St -3 / Under 153.5
Fade the Public:  Duke / Under
Sharp Action:      Florida St / Under