GAME:  #905 Braves @ #906 Rays
DATE:     5/6/2021 – 4:05p EST
ODDS:   Braves -101 / Nationals -107
O/U:       9 -105 / -115

The Washington Nationals (12-14) host the Atlanta Braves (14-16) at Nationals Park on Thursday at 4:05 pm EST. The Braves beat the Nationals in the first 2 games of the series and are looking for the series sweep. The Braves have lefty Drew Smyly (0-2, 8.05 ERA, 1.53 WHIP) facing the lefty Jon Lester (0-0, 0.00 ERA, 1.40 WHIP).

WEATHER (baseball-weather.com)

BATTER VS PITCHER(dailybaseballdata.com)

STARTING LINEUPS (rotowire.com)

TRENDS (covers.com)

ATLANTA

• Over is 4-0 in Smyly’s last 4 starts on grass.
• Over is 7-0 in Braves last 7 games vs. a left-handed starter.
• Over is 3-0-1 in Braves last 4 road games vs. a left-handed starter.
• Over is 4-0 in Smyly’s last 4 starts overall.
• Braves are 0-4 in Smyly’s last 4 starts on grass.

WASHINGTON

• Under is 2-0-2 in Nationals last 4 after allowing 5 runs or more in their previous game.
• Under is 4-0-2 in Nationals last 6 when their opponent scores 5 runs or more in their previous game.
• Under is 5-0-2 in Nationals last 7 games as an underdog.
• Under is 7-0 in Nationals last 7 during game 3 of a series.
• Under is 4-0-1 in Nationals last 5 games vs. a left-handed starter.

HEAD TO HEAD

• Braves are 4-0 in the last 4 meetings in Washington.
• Braves are 4-0 in the last 4 meetings.
• Over is 10-4-1 in the last 15 meetings.

BRAVES VS NATIONALS PREDICTION

The Braves offense has kicked in scoring 23 runs in the last 5 games compared to the Nationals 16 runs in that time. Jon Lester threw well in his first outing but his WHIP is not much better than Smyly. Both of these lineups have a solid career batting average against the opposing pitcher. The Braves have the better bullpen so regardless of how many innings Smyly can go, they are in a better position. Lester probably won’t go more than 5 innings so there should be plenty of action against the Nats pen. Take the Braves to continue the winning streak in this one.  

The Bookie:          Braves -101 / Over 9 -105 (Listed Pitchers)
Fade the Public:   Braves / Under
Sharp Action:       Braves / Under

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