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MLB Picks & Analysis for 6/28

EMAILED ON June 28, 2022

MLB Picks & Analysis for 6/28

7:10 PM Houston Astros @ New York Mets

Astros
: -120
Mets
: +110
Total
: 8

The New York Mets begin a quick 2-game set against the visiting Houston Astros today. The Mets return home after going 2-3 on a road trip against Houston and Miami. The Astros just split a 4-game series against the Yankees over the weekend. The Astros will start left-hander Framber Valdez (7-3, 2.90 ERA) after he received a no-decision after allowing 3 runs on 2 hits over 6 innings against the Yankees last week. Valdez has a 4.21 ERA in 6 home starts this season compared to a 1.95 ERA in 8 outings on the road. The Mets will counter with right-hander Carlos Carrasco (8-3, 4.42) who will face the Astros for the second time in the past week after exiting early in last weeks start. Carrasco allowed a 3 homers before exiting the game with lower back tightness in the 3rd inning. Carrasco gave up 4 hits and 5 runs in 2 1/3 innings last Wednesday and he has gone 4-4 with a 4.34 ERA in 10 career games against the Astros.

⚾The Mets’ Carrasco has posted a 5.33 ERA in 5 starts in June.

⚾The Astros’ Altuve (10-for-27), Yuli Gurriel (5-for-13), and Yordan Alvarez has homered in both his at-bats against Carrasco.

⚾The Astros are 8-1 in their last 9 road games vs. a right-handed starter.

⚾The Astros are 5-0 in the last 5 meetings.

The Bookie: Astros

8:05 PM Cincinnati Reds @ Chicago Cubs

Reds: +100
Cubs
: -110
Total
: 9

The Cubs and the Reds are having terrible seasons however both teams are coming off series’ wins. Sitting at 17 games under .500, the Cubs went 3-4 on a road trip through Pittsburgh and St. Louis, and took 2 of 3 from the Cardinals. Cincinnati was on a 7-game losing streak before taking 2 of 3 at San Francisco against the Giants over the weekend. The scheduled starter for the Cubs will be Keegan Thompson (7-2, 3.10 ERA) who has allowed 1 run on 6 hits and struck out 16 over 12 innings while going 1-0 in his past 2 starts. Thompson gave up 5 runs on 3 hits and 3 walks in just 2/3 of an inning in his start prior to those 2 games. This will be his first start against the Reds but he did pitch 3 scoreless innings over 4 appearances against the Reds last season in relief. The Reds will be going with Luis Castillo (2-4, 3.71 ERA) who allowed 2 runs in 5 innings in a 4-3 win over the Cubs on May 25. In his last outing, Castillo gave up a season-high 4 earned runs, 5 hits and 3 walks in the Reds’ 8-4 loss to the Dodgers last week.

⚾The Cubs are 5-15 in the last 20 games.

⚾The Reds beat the Cubs 20-5 the last time they faced each other.

⚾The Reds are coming off 3 tough series’ facing the Giants, Dodgers, and Brewers which will make this a good spot for the Reds to jump on the Cubs weak pitching.

The Bookie: Reds

MLB Picks & Analysis for 6/28
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