GAME:  #911 Mets @ #912 Phillies
DATE:    9/15/2020 – 7:05 pm EST
ODDS:   Mets -125 / Phillies +115
O/U:       9.5

The Philadelphia Phillies (23-23) host the New York Mets (23-26) at Citizens Bank Park in Philadelphia, PA. The Mets are coming off a 3 game series against Toronto which they lost 2 of 3 and the Phillies are coming off a 7 game series against Miami which they lost 5 of 7 games. These teams have met 7 times this season and Philly has won 5 of 7. 

NEW YORK METS

The Mets have right-hander Rick Porcello listed as the probable pitcher. Porcello is 1-4 with a 6.07 ERA and a 1.56 WHIP. Porcello has pitched in 43 innings and has allowed 57 hits, 31 runs, 2 home runs, 10 walks, and has 36 K’s this season. The Mets as a team have a career batting average of .310 against Jake Arrieta with Smith, Gimenez, McNeil, Nimmo, Ramos, Alonso, and Davis all hitting over .300. 

PHILADELPHIA PHILLIES

The Phillies have righty Jake Arrieta getting the start for the first game of the home series. Arrieta is 3-4 with a 5.54 ERA and a 1.49 WHIP. Arrieta has pitched in 39 innings and has given up 43 hits, 24 runs, 5 home runs, 15 walks, and has 28 K’s this season. The Phillies have a team career batting average of .219 against Porcello but Hoskins .357 and Realmuto’s .286 will be out today.

BATTER VS PITCHER  (dailybaseballdata.com)

TRENDS (covers.com) 

METS

• Over is 4-0 in Mets last 4 games vs. a right-handed starter.
• Over is 6-0 in Mets last 6 road games vs. a right-handed starter.

PHILLIES

• Over is 5-0-1 in Arrieta’s last 6 Tuesday starts.
• Over is 4-0-1 in Arrieta’s last 5 starts following a team loss in their previous game.
• Phillies are 0-5 in their last 5 games vs. a starter with a WHIP greater than 1.30.

HEAD TO HEAD

• Mets are 0-4 in the last 4 meetings in Philadelphia.
• The Mets are 2-7 in the last 9 meetings.

METS VS PHILLIES PREDICTION

The Phillies will be without Rhys Hoskins and JT Realmuto again. Losing these 2 is a huge loss to the Phillies especially facing Porcello since they have had a lot of success. The Phillies have lost 6 of their last 8 games and offensive production has been down in that span. The Mets still have a legitimate shot at making the playoffs and this game is an important one to win. This line also opened up with the Phillies as the favorites but the line has moved to the Mets in a big way. The Bookie is rolling with the Mets on this game to win by at least 2 runs.  

The Bookie:         Mets -1½ +130
Fade the Public:  Mets
Sharp Action:      Mets

1 Unit to win 1.3 Units on:  (#911) Mets -1½ +130

ADDITIONAL WAGERS:

7:40 PM
(#915) Cardinals -1½ +115
1 Unit to Win 1.15 Units.

9:10 PM
(#926) Padres +115
1 Unit to Win 1.15 Units.